Discuss how your chosen economy, u.s., european and chinese economies (e.g., economic growth rates by component including consumption, investment, government, net exports, employment, inflation) and financial markets (e.g., exchange rates, market interest rates, credit spreads, equity market returns) have, and are been affected, by your overall scenario.

Published by Jeannie R. Ferrell

Dec 8, 2022

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The “Starting Point” of your scenario (partly real and partly hypothetical): At the beginning of November 2022, your chosen economy and the world economy are hit by a series of shocks: First, economic analysts are now expecting that European and Chinese economies will slow down to a halt in 2022 Q4 (i.e., zero real GDP growth). Recent data suggests that GDP growth in your own economy and across other economies have also begun to slow. Second, the Russian invasion of the Ukraine continues to adversely affect commodity prices leading to continued high prices of oil and natural gas, as well as global supply chain challenges. Third, many countries, including your own, continue to face significant and persistently high rates of inflation, higher transportation and storage costs, and an acceleration of wage growth. Forth, recent increases in the cost of borrowing – implemented by your own, and other central banks around the world, to combat inflation – have resulted in a major “correction” in the housing market, as well as domestic and global equity and bond markets. House prices have recently fallen by 20% domestically, and global equity indices are down by more than 50% (on average, by market capitalization), while corporate bond spreads have widened significantly. Key domestic financial markets have also become more illiquid, exchange rates have become highly more volatile, and some investors are fleeing to higher quality financial assets.
1. Macroeconomic Environment and Financial Market Conditions – Provide a complete descriiption of your chosen economy, the international macroeconomic environment and financial market conditions before the “starting point” shocks begins in November 2022. This should be based on actual data.
Then, beginning with the “starting point” shocks described above, add other hypothetical elements to create a macro-financial stress scenario using history as your guide. Characterize in detail the economic and financial market dynamics of the local and global economies starting at the beginning of November. In your plausible scenario, you must one additional element to the “starting point” described above to ensure that a severe economic and/or financial shock takes place in your economy. You should be creative, but you must ensure that the economic and financial market environment in your overall scenario is consistent with the starting point provided above.
Discuss how your chosen economy, U.S., European and Chinese economies (e.g., economic growth rates by component including consumption, investment, government, net exports, employment, inflation) and financial markets (e.g., exchange rates, market interest rates, credit spreads, equity market returns) have, and are been affected, by your overall scenario.
Use graphs, charts and tables based on historical and recent economic and financial data (from official sources such as your domestic statistical agency, your central bank, IMF, OECD, central banks around the world) to illustrate the environment in your macro-financial stress scenario. Note: graphs, charts and tables must be produced by students by downloading data from official sources (No copy and pasting of pictures is permitted). Sources of data should be indicated at the bottom of each graph, chart and table. See how the IMF presents (write-up and tables) their outlook and forecasts, e.g., https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO Links to an external site.. (About 1200 words, 18% weight in group assignment grade)
2% – Full and complete written descriiption of the domestic economic environment leading up to Nov. 2022
2% – Full and complete written descriiption of recent international macroeconomic environment leading up Nov. 2022
2% – Full and complete written descriiption of very recent financial market conditions leading up to Nov.2022
2% – Graphs, charts and tables created yourself based on historical and official data
8% – Full and complete written descriiption of your macro-financial stress scenario:
2% – Scenario is consistent with “starting point” provided in assignment above; Scenario is plausible
2% – Elements of scenario are internally consistent
4% – Complete discussion of your economy, the U.S., other economies and financial markets, and how they have, and are been affected, by the shock(s)

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